On the actual value of Mike Cameron
Now, $9.25 million is a lot of money. In $100 bills, it would pretty much fill this suitcase.
If you assume the Brewer payroll will be around $90 million next season, give or take depending on free agent signings, Mike Cameron stands to make about 11.1% of the Brewers' total payroll. That number is less than Jeff Suppan (13.8%), only slightly more than Bill Hall (9.3%) and much, much more than Ryan Braun (0.8%).
In several threads discussing the option, there seems to be a percentage of the population that feels like $9.25 million was too much to spend on Cameron, an above-average defensive CF who hit .243/.331/.477 in 2008, his tenth consecutive and eleventh out of twelve season with an OPS+ over 100. I'll agree that $9.25 million is a lot of money, and perhaps more than I'd like to spend, but if not Cameron, then what? Let's take a look down three other paths the Brewers could have pursued:
Option 1: Replace from within
Cost: Cheap. Any two of these guys would cost less than $1 million for 2009.
Six minor leaguers played in at least ten games in center field for either Nashville (AAA) or Huntsville (AA) in 2008. Thanks to Jeff, we can calculate their major league equivalents for 2008 relatively easily. Here are the six, sorted by their MLE OPS:
Laynce Nix (AAA): .238/.287/.429
Lorenzo Cain (AA): .228/.293/.383
Michael Brantley (AA): .264/.322/.323
Hernan Iribarren (AAA): .233/.274/.283
Tony Gwynn (AAA): .231/.272/.274
Freddy Parejo (AA): .233/.248/.289
Of those, Nix is no longer with the organization, Brantley was the PTBNL in the Sabathia deal, and Iribarren has played just 11 games in center field in his career. Lorenzo Cain has played just six games above AA, and only played half of 2008.
So if you want to go really cheap and create the possibility of half innings that go 7-8-9 with Kendall, Cain/Iribarren/Gwynn, Pitcher, that's one option. On Yovani Gallardo's starts he should hit seventh.
Option 2: Sign another free agent to replace Cameron
Cost: Moderate
Could the Brewers bring in another stop-gap centerfielder for less? Possibly. Let's look at the options:
Gabe Kapler, Brewers: There's no guarantee Kapler will be back, as he's coming off a career year and the Red Sox reportedly have interest in him. He's never had 500 AB's in a season, and hasn't even had 500 plate appearances since 2001. He had a career year and a nice comeback in 2008, but spent 2007 out of baseball, and in the five seasons before that he posted OPS+'s of 75, 85, 77, 65 and 77. He's only 33 and coming off a career year, so my guess is he'll sign for either 2 or 3 years at $3.5-$4 million per. If you sign him for that and he either can't physically handle playing full time or is ineffective, then you're back to the options listed above.
Jim Edmonds, Cubs: Came back to hit .256/.369/.568 for the Cubs in part-time duty after a rough start that led to his release in San Diego. He's 39 years old and hasn't appeared in 120 games since 2005. He's almost certainly not capable of playing everyday, but if you'd like to give him a shot I'd guess about $3 million for one year could do it.
Mark Kotsay, Red Sox: Hit /276/.329/.403 for the Braves and Red Sox in 2008. He's a serviceable big league CF with decent experience and while he hasn't reached a 100 OPS+ in any of the last four seasons, he was only truly terrible in one of them. The downside: he made $8 million in 2008, and since he's really the only other everyday option available in free agency, he'll probably get something like 3 years, $27 million, to make him $25k cheaper than Cameron.
Scott Podsednik, Rockies or So Taguchi, Phillies: Podsednik hasn't been a full-timer since 2006. He had a nice comeback in Colorado this year, but still only hit .253/.322/.333. Taquchi hit .220/.283/.297 for the Phillies this season and, at 38 years old, is likely done. Either might take a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. Neither should be depended on to provide anything.
Option 3: Move Ryan Braun/Corey Hart to CF and look for a corner outfielder
Cost: Depends on the corner outfielder
CHONE projects Mike Cameron as about three runs above average defensively in center field in 2009. Braun projects at about 7 runs below average in center, and Hart projects at 9. Braun has never played there before, so I'm not sure how reliable that number is. But, assuming one of the two would be 8 runs below average, the new corner outfielder would need to be an average defender and 11 runs better than Mike Cameron offensively to break even.
There are some Brewers that could be a fit here. Brad Nelson (.246/.321/.393 MLE in Nashville) is as close to big league ready as he'll ever get, in all likelihood. Mat Gamel (.273/.326/.430 MLE in Huntsville) could work, and a free agent to fill a corner spot is easier to find than a center fielder. This is probably the most viable of the three options, but it weakens the Brewers a lot defensively, and could mean Ryan Braun's second position change in as many years.
So what do you think? What should the Brewers have done?
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Thursday's Frosty Mug
Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
So CC Sabathia pitched pretty well yesterday, all told, but should he have pitched at all? Baseball Musings makes the case that the rotation should have been realigned and he should have pitched today instead.
I haven't seen much for updates, but it's probably safe to assume Gabe Kapler won't play today after straining his shoulder in yesterday's game.
Two potential explanations for the Brewers recent slide today, both strange. Chuckie Hacks quotes Tony Gwynn (Sr.) as blaming the entire thing on "tight booties." The Crawfish Boxes blame the Brett Favre trade.
Baseball Analysts is working on a project to rank the top prospects in baseball. The link goes to discussion on the NL Central.
He's not a prospect, but he is new: The Brewers claimed Todd Coffey off waivers from the Reds yesterday. They did this while the Reds were in town, conveniently, but Coffey still won't join the team until tonight's game in Philadelphia. Take a moment today for quiet contemplation of the Brewer career (and .153/.180/.220 batting line) of Laynce Nix, who was DFA'd to make room for Coffey.
Will Hank Blalock be a Brewer this offseason? It's the first time I've heard his name mentioned, but if he's healthy it seems unlikely he'd take a 1-year deal.
I have no injuries to report today. Weird.
The Cubs start a 3-game series with the Astros tomorrow, but when those three games will be played is anyone's guess. Hurricane Ike is leading to changes and cancellations across the board, and could leave the Cubs playing an afternoon game tomorrow, then riding out the hurricane and waiting until Monday to play a doubleheader to finish the series.
So seven players are joining the Reds from AAA Louisville as late September callups. One problem: Dusty Baker doesn't want to play them. There's nothing like rebuilding with a manager that's in the way.
The Pirates lost last night, so they still need two wins in their last 17 games to avoid 100 losses. Where Have You Gone Andy Van Slyke is worried they might not make it.
Speaking of futility, Braves C Corky Miller needs two more at-bats to finish the season with 60 plate appearances and a batting average under .100. He'd be the first position player to do it since Enrique Cruz did it as a Brewer in 2003.
And if Corky comes back to play for the Braves next season, he'll do it under Bobby Cox, who will return for one more season.
Some days as I gather links for the Mug I come across something bizarre that completely derails the effort. Today I found two, so I'll share both of them.
Drink up.
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Friday's Frosty Mug
20 other teams did play yesterday. Here are their win expectancy graphs.
The Brewers open a series with the Pirates tonight. Get used to hearing that, we're going to say it 3 more times between now and October. The Brew Town Beat is pretty excited about playing the Pirates without Jason Bay and Xavier Nady. Also, his bar of the week is The Safe House, which is a bizarre experience if I've ever seen one.
The Beat also wants to know why Laynce Nix is still a Brewer but Tony Gwynn Jr. is not. I left a comment with a handful of reasons (one turned out to be wrong), but Chuckie Hacks sums it up pretty nicely too.
While we're on the subject of minor leaguers, The Junkball Blues warns us not to count our chickens before they've hatched regarding Alcides Escobar.
Maybe Escobar can play second? 64% of voters at Brewers Fanatics want Ray Durham to play at second over Rickie Weeks. Next step: a blind taste test.
Of the three remaining contenders in the NL Central (sorry, Houston), the Brewers have the lowest opponent winning percentage and most home games on their remaining schedule.
Baseball Prospectus (via Sports Illustrated) has released 26-50 of their list of best players to build a team around. Milwaukee's favorite vegetarian checks in at #35.
Injuries are really brief today: The A's placed two-fifths of their starting rotation on the DL yesterday and Royals OF Mitch Maier broke several bones in his face being hit by a pitch.
Home Run Derby's Jersey of the Week is a must see if you enjoy making fun of the Cubs, and I do. If the Cubs fail to win the World Series again, I'm hoping he'll untuck it.
Oh, and would you have guessed that Brett Myers has pitched almost as well as CC Sabathia since the All Star break? Me either.
Drink up.
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Monday's Frosty Mug
Living in Iowa, I don't get to see the Brewers on TV very often. So I was pretty excited for yesterday's game on TBS. I planned my day around it. At 3, my commitments were done, the dog had been walked and I was on the couch waiting to catch game 3 of the Brewers-Dodgers series. Except I couldn't.
You see, I live in Iowa. And even though I'm hundreds of miles from Milwaukee, Iowa is technically part of the Brewers' "home market." So yesterday's game on TBS? Blacked out. Major League Baseball does this to encourage me to watch the game on FSN Wisconsin. But I don't live in Wisconsin.
All I wanted yesterday was to see a rare national television broadcast involving a team I listen to everyday but have only actually seen about a dozen times in 2008. Major League Baseball took the possibility away from me. So I skipped the game. I didn't watch it, obviously. I didn't listen to it. I didn't watch the highlights. This morning while preparing the Mug I heard it was an exciting game. I would've liked to see it.
Sunday's Win Expectancy Graph
Sunday's BR Box Score
Saturday's Win Expectancy Graph
Saturday's BR Box Score
Friday's Win Expectancy Graph
Friday's BR Box Score
The biggest weekend news is injury related. As noted in the fanshots, Rickie Weeks sprained his (surgically repaired) left thumb yesterday. I'm assuming an MRI is in the not-so-distant future, but he hasn't been DL'ed yet, so there must be a possibility it's a minor problem. Of course, there are some that would suggest that keeping Weeks from playing isn't a problem at all.
Furthermore, Salomon Torres was pulled from Saturday night's extra-inning extravaganza after one inning of work due to stiffness in his groin. If it lasts more than 4 hours, he should call a doctor.
All of these injuries are, of course, retribution for the Brewers' consistence on continuing to commit baseball's greatest atrocity: the untucking of shirts. Go ahead and click that link, if for no other reason than to look at the look on Ned's face while he's "congratulating" Prince.
I'm a few days behind on this one, but In-Between Hops was upset over Ned's decision to bat Laynce Nix third in Thursday's lineup. I was upset over how dumb it made me look for predicting Nix wouldn't get a single at-bat as a Brewer just hours before the lineup was announced.
The Hopster also took a moment to point out that if Mike Rivera kept up his current production and had been given Jason Kendall's playing time, he'd have 35 more hits and 65 more RBI.
Over the weekend, John Sickels reviewed his preseason Top 20 Prospects for the Brewers. Turns out he hit the nail on the head on most position players, but there's still pretty much no pitching in the pipeline.
After watching Saturday night's back and forth exchange during the final few innings, Adam Charles of Bugs and Cranks thinks the Brewers are showing signs of bipolar disorder. Also at Bugs and Cranks, Tyler Maas commemorates the one-millionth article on Prince Fielder's vegetarianism.
Worth noting: Of all 30 Major League Baseball franchises, the Brewers charge the lowest "convenience fees" for ordering advance tickets. They're still too high.
The Brewers rank 8th in Phil Rogers' most recent Power Rankings, seven spots behind the Cubs and five spots behind Scott Boras.
Jon Heyman has predicted the contracts some upcoming free agents will receive this winter. For Sabathia: six years, $150 million. For Sheets: three years, $51 million.
Apparently Ted Simmons likes art, but doesn't want to talk about it.
Marc Hulet of Fangraphs compares Jeremy Jeffress' drug situation to that of Josh Hamilton. Maybe I'm missing something, but last I heard Jeffress likes pot and has been suspended one time, right? That's a bit different from having to go back to living with your grandmother while recovering from cocaine addiction.
On injuries:
Chris Carpenter is back on the DL with a posterior shoulder strain.
Tom Glavine is on the DL with a strained elbow.
Angels SS Maicer Izturis is done for the season with a torn ligament in his thumb.
Jeff Kent is going to get hurt if he keeps talking trash about Vin Scully. (h/t Jim Powell)
Kazuo Matsui is on the DL with an irritated disc in his back.
Carlos Silva is on the DL with triceps tendinitis.
The Mets pulled off a trade over the weekend, acquiring reliver Luis Ayala from the Nationals. Just when you think the trades are over, there's another one. And the Nats, never one to miss an opportunity to make things worse, followed up the trade by failing to sign their first-round pick.
Three former Brewers in the news today: the Yankees DFA'd Richie Sexson after he hit .250/.371/.393 in 35 plate appearances. Gary Glover is back in the big leagues with the Tigers, and R.A. Dickey tied a major league record with 4 wild pitches in one inning.
Oh, and do you need a new tailgating grill? go win one here.
Drink up.
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Thursday's Frosty Mug
So I went to bed early again last night. As it turns out, it's a good thing I did because I had to get up at 4 to take care of a sick puppy. Speaking of sick puppies, Battlekow, even if I had no links today I would've posted anyway to push your post-game fanshot farther down the page. That's just unnecessary.
Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
The Official Site is reporting that Ryan Braun felt better yesterday and expects to play this weekend against the Dodgers. This greatly decreases the chance that Laynce Nix will get a single at-bat during his brief stint as a fourth outfielder.
Nix was brought up when Russell Branyan was placed on the DL with an oblique strain. Apparently 19 plate appearances over the team's last 20 games (including nine total PA's in August) were too much for him to handle.
In-Between Hops has updated the Fielder HR chart and notes that Prince has once again hit his stride.
How dominant would Team USA be if they could still have Ben Sheets pitching for them? In The Official Site's preview for today's game, Sheets remembers his Olympic glory in Sydney.
Jeremy Jeffress experienced slightly less glory yesterday in Huntsville, giving up 2 runs on 2 hits and 3 walks in just 2 1/3 innings in his Southern League debut.
Bugs and Cranks has the Brewers 8th (up one spot) in their most recent power rankings.
Big League Stew further destroyed their own credibility by posting a list of the 25 most improbable big league success stories that includes several guys who have racked up less than a full week of big league action, but mysteriously misses the most obvious Brewer. What part of "last year I managed in the minors, this year I'm hitting .304/.337/.490 for a likely playoff team" isn't an improbable story?
On injuries:
Carlos Guillen has a pinched nerve in his lower back. The team is saying 2-3 days but it could be more.
Derek Jeter missed last night's game to recover from being overrated fouling a ball off his foot Tuesday.
Mike Lowell is on the DL with an injury to his right oblique.
A's CF Ryan Sweeney is on the DL with a sprained right thumb.
Tigers RP Joel Zumaya is back on the DL with a sore shoulder.
Jose de Jesus Ortiz says next week's road trip to Milwaukee and New York is make-or-break for the Astros season. Right now they're the fourth best team in their own division and BP Postseason odds has their shot at the playoffs at .4%, or about one in 250. How much more broken can you get?
Last night, though, they did manage to send 12 men to the plate in the sixth inning of their game with the Giants despite only picking up 3 official at bats. Four walks (1 intentional), three HBP, two sac flies and two singles led to a six-run inning.
Did any of us expect Zach Jackson to be a major league starting pitcher this season? He'll make his AL debut for the Indians tonight, filling the rotation spot vacated when Paul Byrd was sent to Boston.
Oh, and Keith Law is commenting and speculating on the financial issues facing Whole Foods.
Drink up.
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The Ryan Braun Situation
Ryan Braun has missed the last two games, and he'll miss at least one more. There's not a lot of clarity about his health situation--he sounds optimistic he'll be back on the field in a few days, but it's possible that his problems run deeper. I can't get too interested in the details of injuries, so I'll leave that part of it up to those who want to hash it out.
But it does open up some questions we really didn't want to be asking. What if Braun heads to the DL? What if he's out for the season (or a substantial part of it)?
Obviously, any extended absence is a serious blow to the lineup. Not only is Braun one of the best hitters on the team--he leads Brewers regulars with a 137 OPS+--but the rest of the lineup looks a little more toothless without him. Sure, guys like Hart and Branyan can hit, but a Kapler-Fielder-Hart, or Hall-Fielder-Hart middle of the order just isn't the same.
If the injury sends Braun to the DL, but there's good reason to think he'll be back before the end of the month, I'd be surprised to see the team make any serious moves. Kapler has filled in nicely, Branyan (and even Hall) can play left, and I wouldn't be shocked to see Ray Durham out there. (I don't endorse it, but I wouldn't rule it out.)
Not only that, but a DL move opens a roster spot for a replacement. The logical callups, I suppose, are:
- Joe Dillon: remember it was last August he impressed us so much, and since he's been on the team this year, he's the easiest guy for Ned to add to the mix.
- Laynce Nix: he's OPSing almost 900 at Nashville, and is sort of Branyan without the walks and the major league track record. I'm skeptical, because he was a lot better the first two months of the season than he has been since; his June and July OBPs were .298 and .310, respectively. One plus is that he's a solid defender in a corner.
- Brad Nelson: he's probably not great shakes with the glove, but he has played quite a bit in left. I think he's my pick among these three, because he's nearly as powerful as Nix, but has a nearly .400 OBP. He's also swooned some the last couple of months, though.
Nothing too exciting there. I doubt it would matter much, since if it's a short-term injury, Kapler will be the guy.
What if, heaven forbid, Braun is out for most of the rest of the season?
As exciting as Kapler has been at times, there's no way he's the left fielder of a potential championship team (at least not this one) for two months. Nor is anybody else in the fold right now. Now that it's August, the trade market is much more constrained, but I've scanned the rosters of out-of-contention teams looking for possible replacements who have likely cleared waivers:
- Shannon Stewart ...just released by the Blue Jays...basically he's another Kapler.
- Aubrey Huff ...having a solid (302/360/550) season for the Orioles. We could do worse.
- Raul Ibanez ...on the block before the deadline; the Mariners should want to get rid of him. He's also having a decent year (286/350/483), but he's a major liability with the glove.
- Randy Winn ...Stewart, only more expensive.
Blech. Huff's really the only option that could come close to replacing Braun's offense, and we'd sacrifice some defense plugging him in over Kapler or Nix. He's also signed for $8MM next year, so we'd basically be borrowing him just to find a taker in the offseason. That's not going to happen.
Of course, there's always the nuclear option. Barry Bonds is on the market. The man can hit. If Braun is out for the season, I will pound the Bonds drum until you're so sick of hearing about it you'll want to go back to getting your Brewers commentary from Haudricourt. But I realize it's far fetched.
Exercises like this are always interesting, especially after the trade deadline. Let's hope this one is only an exercise.
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